2008/11/8

Linux真的价值100亿美元吗?

个读者 后溪金 @ yeeyan.com 双语对照 原文
Just how do you put a value on an open source, free for all, piece of code such as Linux? The Linux Foundation has attempted to do just that, and valued just one single distro at more than USD $10 billion.
怎样公平计算像Linux一样的开源、自由软件的全部价值,或一段代码的价值?Linux基金会一直试图做到这一点,而且刚刚估算出一个单一的发行版超过100亿美元。
The nonprofit consortium charged with fostering Linux growth, the Linux Foundation , was only founded last year. It sponsors the work of Linux creator Linus Torvalds and has support from Linux and open source companies around the world.
负责培育Linux成长的非营利财团Linux基金会只是在去年才建立。它赞助Linux创造者Linus Torvalds的工作,并得到世界各地Linux和开源公司的支持。
The Linux Foundation dedicates itself to 'accelerating the growth of Linux' but what if you wanted to build a Linux distribution yourself, right now? Something like Fedora 9, for example. How much money would that need given software development costs today?
Linux基金会把时间和精力用于‘加速Linux的发展’,但如果你目前希望自建一个Linux发行版,比如Fedora 9之类。那么,今天需要付出的软件开发成本会是多少呢?
Amanda McPherson, Brian Proffitt and Ron Hale-Evans put their collective heads together and did the math in a newly published paper title "Estimating the Total Development Cost of a Linux Distribution."
Amanda McPherson、Brian Proffitt和Ron Hale-Evans集思广益,并在新近出版的题为“一个Linux发行版的开发总成本估算”的论文中算了一笔帐。
So, did the intrepid trio really discover that the true value of Linux code is USD $10 billion? No, of course not. They discovered that it was USD $10.8 billion!
结果,英勇无畏的三人组真的发现Linux源代码的真实价值为100亿美元吗?不,当然不止。他们发现,价值108亿美元!
What's more, they say, it would take USD $1.4 billion just to develop the Linux kernel on its own. Which is more than the USD $1.2 billion David A. Wheeler reckoned it would take for a fully blown Linux distro (Red Hat Linux 7.1) when he did a similar study back in 2002.
更重要的是,他们说,单为开发Linux内核本身就要花14亿美元。超过了David A. Wheeler估算的12亿美元,他早在2002年就做了一项类似的研究,对完全夸大的Linux发行版(Red Hat Linux 7.1)的价值信以为真。
How did the authors come up with those figures? Well they examined the Fedora 9 distribution using the same tools and methods as Wheeler before them, specifically the SLOCCount tool that estimates value and effort of software development based on the COnstructive COst MOdel (COCOMO).
作者如何拿出这些数字?他们像从前的Wheeler一样使用同样的工具和方法仔细检查了Fedora 9发行版,特别是SLOCCount,这一工具基于COCOMO(COnstructive COst Model,构造性成本模型)估计软件开发的价值和成果。
What about the Fedora code and the Linux kernel itself, and what conclusions can we draw from the figures when it comes to monopolistic software companies and the development of proprietary code?
当涉及到垄断软件公司和专有代码的开发时,从这些数字我们可以得出Fedora源代码和Linux内核本身怎么样和什么结论吗?
The Fedora 9 distribution contains 204.5 million lines of code in 5547 application packages, and in terms of development the authors estimate would require some 60,000 man years to complete. Using 2008 salary figures, they came up with the USD $10.8 billion number.
Fedora 9发行版包含5547个应用程序包,20450万行源代码,而就开发而言,作者估计将需要约60000人年才能完成。用2008年的薪水计算,他们得出108亿美元这个数字。
The Linux kernel as included in Fedora 9 has 6.8 million lines of code, and would need more than 7500 man years to develop, hence the USD $1.4 billion figure.
包含在Fedora 9中的Linux内核有680万行源代码,将需要超过7500人来开发,所以值14亿美元的数字。
But does this really mean the same thing as putting a real world value onto Linux itself? The study makes it very clear as to the enormous economic value that a collaborative development of this nature can attract.
但这是否真的意味着事情就是把实际价值归还Linux本身?这一研究清楚表明,这种性质的协作开发能够吸引巨大的经济价值。
You only have to look at the last couple of years worth of Linux kernel development with some 3200 developers spread across 200 companies making a contribution to get a glimpse of the scale of effort involved.
只要看看过去两年,遍布200家公司的大约3200名开发人员为Linux内核开发作出贡献,相关努力的规模可见一斑。
Oh, and don't forget to then scale it ever upwards when talking about a full Linux distribution.
哦,不要忘了,当谈到一个完整的Linux发行版时,规模总是在变大。
The conclusions are made all the more relevant after a year in which we have seen Linux increasingly bursting into the public consciousness courtesy of the netbook explosion, for example, which quite simply would not have been thought possible a couple of years back.
所得结论是,一年后一切会更中肯贴切,例如,由于netbook的蓬勃发展,我们已经看到,Linux会越来越多地闯入公众的意识,这在两年以前人们干脆就认为完全没有可能。
These devices, that market success, would not have been possible without Linux and without the collaborative development model behind it.
要是没有Linux和协作开发模式的支持,这些设备、这一市场的成功就不可能。
Report author Amanda McPherson, also a Vice President at the Linux Foundation, says "Monopolistic software companies used to be able to fund heavy R&D budgets, keeping out competition. Given the cost associated with building an OS like Linux, one wonders if proprietary companies will ever go it alone again.”
报告作者Amanda McPherson,也是Linux基金会的副会长说,“垄断软件公司过去经常能够为沉重的研发预算拨款,不参加竞争。考虑到与建立一个类似Linux的操作系统相关的费用,人们不禁要问,究竟这些控股公司是否又要单干了。”
上海澳凯信息技术有限公司

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